2024 Global Industry ETF Review and Outlook

Major sector ETFS Ranked by 6 Month Returns

Source: Saxo Capital

2024 Wrap

Global equities generated strong returns in 2024 with the benchmark MSCI (ACWI ETF) rising a healthy 17% and compares to a 22% gain in 2023 and a 12% fall in 2022. We are two years into this bull market. From a historical perspective bull markets of course vary in length. The average length of a bull market in stocks varies depending on the specific index and time period analysed, but generally falls between 3.8 to 5.5 years.

Since the bull market began around the beginning of 2023 the standout performing sectors have been Broad Technology (+90%), Communication Services (+89%) and Consumer Discretionary (+64%). The big underperformers have been Energy (-2%), Real Estate (+1%) and Healthcare (+5%).

   

In the second half of 2024, less growthy sectors like financials, utilities, industrials, and real estate benefitted from Fed rate cuts which had a broadening effect on the market, reducing the dominance of major technology. That said the annual gains of some large cap tech names were stella – NVDA +200% y/y, META +79%, AMZN +57%, TSLA +73% and GOOG +44%. Outside these names some new members of the plus $1 trillion market cap club emerged – Broadcom (AVGO) +125% and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) +121%. We think such moves will be hard to replicate in 2025, even though earnings growth for many of these names looks robust. Whilst the multiples on the Big Tech 10 are elevated (29x ex Telsa), earnings growth averaging 30% is quite exceptional.

  

Factors to consider for 2025

We identify seven significant industry/macroeconomic/geopolitical factors that could influence global equity returns in 2025.

1. Interest rates and inflation: It is anticipated that central banks worldwide will reduce interest rates, which would be favourable for equities, provided that inflationary pressures are controlled, and long-term bond yields remain stable. We expect rate cuts expectations could be wound back.

  

 

2. Global economic growth is estimated at 2.5-3.1%, which is generally supportive for stocks. The weakest growth is anticipated in the Eurozone, balanced by stronger growth in the US, China, India, and Japan.

 

3. Government policy: The policy rollout under the new Trump administration is expected to have varied impacts on different economies and industries. While lower tax rates may promote growth, higher import tariffs could have a negative effect. Additionally, increased fiscal discipline might adversely affect economic expansion. Meanwhile, reduced personal and corporate tax rates are anticipated to support growth. Furthermore, national elections are scheduled to take place in Germany, Canada, Australia, France, and South Korea.

4. Generative AI rollout: Tech giants are investing over $200 billion in next-generation computing, likely boosting productivity and growth across all industries. Demand for high end GPUs used for Ai applications is forecast to grow by mid double-digit CAGR from 2025- 2034.